GSS Analytics · Field notes
Blog
CLV, edge detection, backtesting math, and what we learn from running probability models against live football markets every day. Written for bettors who'd rather check the work than read the hype.
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Why CLV is the only honest scoreboard for sports bettors
Profit and win rate lie. Closing Line Value tells you whether you actually beat the market — and unlike the others, it stabilises in weeks instead of years.
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The Kelly criterion for football bettors — explained without the math PhD
Most bettors stake the same amount every time. The Kelly criterion stakes by edge — and is the formula behind every serious bankroll-growth strategy.
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Three flags to spot a curve-fit backtest before you trust one
Every Discord can show a 200% backtest. Most are tuned in hindsight and collapse on tomorrow's data. Here's how to spot them.
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